Category Archives: Budget

The Fed and Inequality

Populist politicians, among others, have claimed in recent years that monetary policy is too easy and that it is hurting ordinary workers.   But raising interest rates is not the way to address income inequality. It is a strange claim for … Continue reading

Posted in Budget, Bush business cycle, China, Climate Change, Clinton, Congress, Copenhagen, Crisis debt, Deficit, Dollar, ECB emission, Employment, Euro, Europe, Exchange Rates, Expansion, Fed, Feldstein, Fiscal, Forecast, G20, GDP, George W. Bush, Greece, Growth, Jobs, Kyoto, NBER, Obama Administration, Oil, Reagan, Recession, Recovery, Renminbi, Tax, TPP, Yuan | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Fiscal Education for the G-7

As the G-7 Leaders gather in Ise-Shima, Japan, on May 26-27, the still fragile global economy is on their minds.  They would like a road map to address stagnant growth. Their approach should be to talk less about currency wars … Continue reading

Posted in 2008 presidential election, 2012 presidential election, Africa and commodities, Asia, Budget, China, Climate Change, Commodities, Conservatives and Liberals, Dollar, Economic Development, economics, Emerging markets, Euro, Europe, Exchange Rates, Financial Crisis, Financial Regulation, Fiscal Stimulus, Gas Prices, Inflation, International Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, International Trade, Investing, Iraq, Japan, Labor Market, Laffer Curve, Latin America, Monetary Policy, Nobel Prize, Obama Administration, Oil, Poverty | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Talk on trade: TPP & Trump

The ITC Wednesday released its mandated report on the economic effects estimated to result from the TransPacific Partnership.  As is usual in standard trade models, the estimated welfare gains may sound small: on the order of ¼ % of income.  But … Continue reading

Posted in Budget, Bush business cycle, Change, Congress, Copenhagen, Crisis debt, Deficit, ECB emission, Employment, Euro, Europe, Exchange Rates, Expansion, Fed, Feldstein, Fiscal, Forecast, G20, GDP, George W. Bush, Gold, Greece, Growth, Jobs, Kyoto, NBER, Obama Administration, Oil, Reagan, Recession, Recovery, Renminbi, Tax, TPP, Yuan | Leave a comment

Forecasting 2016 Economic Developments & Candidates’ Reactions

As the new year starts, Politico asks a set of economists for forecasts.  Prognostication from 23 appears at “Could the Economy Tank in 2016?” By the way, I think my forecast last time, two years ago, turned out to hold … Continue reading

Posted in 2016 Presidential Campaign, Budget, Candidates, Democrats, Fiscal, Forecast, Presidential, Recession, Republicans, Tax cuts | Leave a comment

Gas Taxes and Oil Subsidies: Time for Reform

World oil prices have been highly volatile during the last decade.   Over the past year they have fallen more than 50%. Should we root for prices to go up, down, or stay the same?   The economic effects of falling oil prices are negative … Continue reading

Posted in Budget, Emerging markets, Environment, Gas Prices, Oil | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

New and Improved Trade Agreements?

WASHINGTON, DC – Trade is high on the agenda in the United States, Europe, and much of Asia this year. In the US, where concern has been heightened by weak recent trade numbers, President Barack Obama is pushing for Congress … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Budget, Conservatives and Liberals, Dollar, Economic Development, economics, Emerging markets, Exchange Rates, Financial Crisis, Financial Regulation, Fiscal Stimulus, Investing, Recession | Leave a comment

Give Obama Trade Promotion Authority

Trade is now high on the agenda in Washington. President Obama is pushing hard for Congress to give him Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), once known as fast-track authority.  He intends to use it to complete negotiations with 11 trading partners under the … Continue reading

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Asia Games: Not Zero-Sum

Two hostesses are rivals in a popularity contest throughout the social season.  When they hold soirees on the same night invitees must choose which one to go to.  The hostesses guard their social ranking jealously, and may even punish a … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Budget, Commodities, Conservatives and Liberals, Dollar, economics, Emerging markets | 1 Comment

Devaluations are Often Associated with Changes in Government

The possibility of devaluation is apparently an issue in the upcoming Argentine elections.  (The forward rate for next year is about 13 pesos per dollar, which is close to the informal rate and suggests a big  devaluation relative to the … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Budget, Dollar, Economic Development, economics, Emerging markets, Exchange Rates, Financial Crisis | Leave a comment

Does the Dollar Need Another Plaza?

We are at the 30th anniversary of the 1985 Plaza Accord.  It was the most dramatic intervention in the foreign exchange market since Nixon originally floated the US currency.   At the end of February 1985 the dollar reached dizzying heights, which … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Budget, Commodities, Conservatives and Liberals, Dollar, Economic Development | Leave a comment