Monthly Archives: May 2008

Despite Positive First Quarter, Odds of 2008 Recession Are Still Above 50%

The Commerce Department this morning revised upward its estimate of first quarter growth in real GDP to 0.9% (precisely in line with the expectations of economic forecasters). 
As a member of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER, I am asked frequently if the country is about to enter a recession, or if we have already […] Continue reading

Posted in Recession | Tagged | Leave a comment