Monthly Archives: June 2008

Prospects for Inflation outside America – Guest Post from Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn, Prof. of Economics at University of Wisconsin, is guest posting this week:
I want to thank Jeff Frankel for the opportunity to be a guest writer on his blog.
A lot of attention has been devoted to how oil price and food price shocks have affected the US economy, both along the output and price […] Continue reading

Posted in Asia, China, Emerging markets | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

I am going to turn off the “Comment” function on my blog

Since I started this blog, my comment section has been inundated with spam.   I am not talking about bona fide comments, most of which have been intelligent and useful.   I’m talking about thinly disguised bids for sales of pornography, mortgage quotes, and other parasitical activities.    The spam has reached 35 per night, and it is time-consuming to […] Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Did GDP Fall Within the 1st Quarter or Not?

Over the past month, I , citing Feldstein, have said that if one looks at available information on monthly GDP, available from estimates of MacroAdvisers, that output declined within the first quarter of the year, even though as standardly reported GDP was higher in QI overall than it had been in the last quarter of 2007.   But, as […] Continue reading

Posted in Recession | Tagged | Leave a comment

Are Either Low Interest Rates or Speculation Raising Holdings of Oil and Other Minerals?

Everyone is looking for someone to blame for high prices of oil and other mineral and agricultural commodities.    Speculators (among others) are high on the list, followed by the Federal Reserve.    While I don’t think blame is necessarily the right concept here, I have been arguing that low real interest rates have worked to raise […] Continue reading

Posted in Commodities, Gas Prices, Oil | Tagged , , | Leave a comment