Monthly Archives: October 2008

NOW Are We In Recession?

Is the United States in recession?   If one looked solely at the adverse shocks that have hit the economy over the last year, one would infer an unusually high probability of a recession.    If one consulted some of the most import economic measures over the last year, one would say we clearly entered a recession […] Continue reading

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The Unwinding of the Carry Trade Has Finally Hit Currencies

Why has the yen strengthened so much the week, even though the Japanese stock market has plummeted?  The financial media have largely got this one right:   the answer is unwinding of the carry trade, and the associated flight to quality, which means flight to yen and dollar (cash and treasury bills).
This was to be expected.  […] Continue reading

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Restructuring the International Financial System: A New Bretton Woods?

The first thing to say about the calls for a “new Bretton Woods” is that they overreach, in the sense that it is very unlikely that any changes in the structure of the international monetary or financial system will or should, at this point in history, come out of multilateral discussions that are big enough […] Continue reading

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The Best-Predicted Event in Economics in 35 Years: Paul Krugman’s Nobel Prize

I wish to add my heart-felt approval to many others, regarding the awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economics to Paul Krugman.  For those readers of the New York Times who can only think of him as a columnist, let me assure you that long before he ever wrote a newspaper opinion piece, Krugman had […] Continue reading

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