Monthly Archives: December 2008

The Euro at Ten: Why Do Effects on Trade Among Members Fall Short of Historical Estimates in Smaller Monetary Unions?

By roughly the five-year mark after the launch of the euro in 1999, enough data had accumulated to allow an analysis of the early effects of the euro on European trade patterns. Studies include Micco, Ordoñez and Stein (2003), Bun and Klaassen (2002), Flam and Nordström (2006), Berger and Nitsch (2005), De Nardis and Vicarelli […] Continue reading

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The Euro at Ten: Time to Assess

January 1, 2009, is the tenth birthday of the euro.  On this occasion, everyone has been taking stock.   The record of the euro shows both pluses and minuses. Looking back, the euro has in many ways been more successful than predicted by the skeptics — many of them American economists.   The historic transition to a […] Continue reading

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The Tenth-Ranked Quotation of 2008?



The good news is that the title line in my blogpost of July 17 was chosen as one of the top ten quotes of 2008 (tied for tenth place, it is true).    The bad news is that the quote was attributed to Paul Krugman, who had used it subsequently on the Bill Mayer Show.    The […] Continue reading

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Origins of the Economic Crisis? In One Chart!

Every two years, Harvard Kennedy School hosts the newly elected Members of Congress for a three-day “briefing” on a wide variety  of topics.   We had an excellent turnout of forty this week, new congresspeople from both parties.    I participated in a panel titled “Understanding the Economic Crisis,”  along with Greg Mankiw, Elizabeth Warren and Robert Lawrence  […] Continue reading

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NBER Eggheads Finally Proclaim Recession

The National Bureau of Economic Research today announced that its Business Cycle Dating Committee had officially determined a peak in economic activity at December 2007, which signals the start of the recession.    I am a member of the committee.    Though I speak only for myself, not the committee, I offer my views on two questions […] Continue reading

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