Monthly Archives: August 2012

More Black Swans?

I have arguedthat the best way to think of “black swan” events is as developments that, even though low-probability, can in fact be contemplated ahead of time.  Even if they are the sort of thing that has never happened before … Continue reading

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Black Swans of August

Throughout history, big economic and political shocks have often occurred in August, when leaders had gone on vacationin the belief that world affairs were quiet.   Examples of geopolitical jolts that came in August include the outbreak of World War I, … Continue reading

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Perspective on the Latest Employment Numbers

The BLS this morning reported U.S. job gains of 163,000 in July, which is good news.  But the jobs data had been disappointing over the preceding three spring months.  Before that, during the winter months, employment growth was strong. In … Continue reading

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